Natural Disasters and Mortality: A Probabilistic Analysis for Argentina (1970-2015)

Fernando Antonio Ignacio González


The frequency and intensity of natural disasters are expected to increase due to climate change. In this context, this work advances in the estimation of an absolute measure of mortality risk generated by natural disasters, in regions of Argentina. In particular, exceedance probabilities of mortality are estimated using the information diffusion method.

The historical data of natural disasters provided by the records of DesInventar are used. These records cover the 1970-2015 period and are published by the Social Studies Network in Disaster Prevention in Latin America (LA RED).

The results suggest that the Centro region is the one with the highest risk of absolute mortality, while the Noreste region has the lowest risk levels. In a given year there is a 0.93 probability that, at least, one death will occur due to natural disasters in the Centro region. In the Noreste region, this probability is 0.77. The results are robust and significant

Palabras clave

Natural disasters; Floods; Mortality risk; Information diffusion method; Probabilistic analysis; Argentina

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