Dilemas de contención y apaciguamiento de Rusia: una reflexión desde la teoría cognitiva de las perspectivas
Russia's dilemmas of containment and appeasement: a reflection from the cognitive theory of perspectives
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12795/araucaria.2025.i58.08Palabras clave:
Rusia, Ucrania, disuasión, apaciguamiento, teoría de las perspectivasResumen
La invasión a gran escala que Rusia inició el 22 de febrero de 2022 sigue encontrando su eco en el mundo académico, pues sin duda alguna representa el ejemplo más destacable de dos lecturas contrapuestas. Dado el desequilibrio de poder entre Kiev y Moscú a favor de este último, el inicio de la invasión confería gran credibilidad a la tesis clásica de la disuasión, según la cual Rusia se estaría aprovechando de la debilidad de un Occidente no dispuesto a defender a Ucrania. Esta lectura está diametralmente opuesta a la interpretación según la cual Rusia reaccionó ante lo que se percibía como una amenaza de Occidente.
Descargas
Métricas
Citas
Duncan Allan, “The Minsk Conundrum: Western Policy and Russia’s War in Eastern Ukraine”, Chatham House (22 de mayo 2020), en
Anne Applebaum, “Why the West’s Diplomacy With Russia Keeps Failing”, The Atlantic (13 de febrero 2022), en
Kristian Atland, “Destined for deadlock? Russia, Ukraine, and the unfulfilled Minsk agreements”, Post-Soviet Affairs, vol. 35, no. 2 (2020), pp. 122-139.
Margarita Balmaceda, “Is the US headed for another war? We asked an expert in diplomacy, Putinism and Ukraine”, NJ.com (26 de enero 2022), en
Jeffrey D. Berejikian, “A cognitive theory of deterrence”, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 39, no. 2 (2002), pp. 165-183.
Jeffrey D. Berejikian y Bryan R. Early, “Loss Aversion and Foreign Policy Resolve”, Political Psychology, vol. 34, No. 5 (2013), pp. 649-671.
Janusz Bugajski, Cold peace: Russia´s new imperialism, Westport, Conn.: Praeger; Washington, DC.: Published in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2004.
Janusz Bugajski, Dismantling the West: Russia´ s Atlantic agenda, Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books, 2009.
Elena Chernenko y Vladimir Soloviov, “Остросюжетная внешняя политика: Как Россия перешла в дипломатическое наступление и чем оно может закончиться”, Kommersant (30 de diciembre 2021), en https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5154624.
Christopher S. Chivvis, “How Does This End?”, Carnegie (3 de marzo 2022), en https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/03/how-does-this-end-pub-86570
Liam Collins y Frank Sobchak, “U.S. Deterrence Failed in Ukraine”, Foreign Policy (20 de febrero 2023), en https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/20/ukraine-deterrence-failed-putin-invasion/
Departamento de Estado de los EEUU, “New START Treaty”, en https://www.state.gov/new-start/#:~:text=Treaty%20Duration%3A%20The%20treaty's%20original,force%20through%20February%204%2C%202026
Ruth Deyermond, “The Uses of Sovereignty in Twenty-first Century Russian Foreign Policy”, Europe-Asia Studies vol. 68, no. 6 (2016), pp. 957-84.
Rilka Dragneva y Kataryna Wolczuk, “The Eurasian Economic Union: Deals, Rules and the Exercise of Power”, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London (2017), en https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/eurasian-economic-union-deals-rules-and-exercise-power.
Daniel W. Drezner, “Why did deterrence fail in Ukraine?”, Washington Post (27 de marzo 2022), en https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/27/why-did-deterrence-fail-ukraine/.
Jonas J. Driedger & Mikhail Polianskii, “Utility-based predictions of military escalation: Why experts forecasted Russia would not invade Ukraine”, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 44, no. 4 (2023), pp. 544-560.
Eero Epner, Holger Roonemaa y Michael Weiss, “Exclusive: Estonia’s Outgoing Military Spymaster on Russia’s War”, The Insider (15 de septiembre 2023), en https://theins.press/en/politics/265092.
Elias Götz, “Taking the longer view: A neoclassical realist account of Russia´s neighbourhood policy”, Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 74, no. 9 (2022), pp. 1729-1763.
Rose Gottemoeller, “Russian attacks would be far worse without NATO’s “proximity” deterrence, argues Rose Gottemoeller”, The Economist (16 de Agosto 2032), en https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/08/16/russian-attacks-would-be-far-worse-without-natos-proximity-deterrence-argues-rose-gottemoeller
Shane Harris, Karen DeYoung, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Ashley Parker & Liz Sly, “Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion”, The Washington Post (16 de Agosto 2022), en
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/
Fiona Hill, “Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants It”, New York Times (24 de enero 2022), en
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html.
Paul K. Huth, "Deterrence and international conflict: empirical findings and theoretical debates", Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 2, no. 1 (1999), pp. 25-48.
Volodymyr Ishchenko, “The Minsk Accords and the Political Weakness of the “Other Ukraine””, Russian Politics no. 8 (2023), pp. 127-146.
Lara Jakes, Edward Wong y Michael Crowley, “America’s Road to the Ukraine War”, New York Times (24 de abril 2022), en
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/24/us/politics/russia-ukraine-diplomacy.html.
Benjamin Jensen, “The Two Sides of Deterrence in Ukraine”, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) (20 de marzo 2022), en https://www.csis.org/analysis/two-sides-deterrence-ukraine.
Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton University Press (1976).
Robert Jervis, "Cooperation under the security dilemma", World Politics, vol. 30, no. 2 (1978), pp. 167-214.
Brian Lampert, “Putin’s Prospects: Vladimir Putin’s Decision-Making Through the Lens of Prospect Theory”, Small Wars Journal (15 de febrero 2016), en
Richard N. Lebow and Janice G. Stein, “Beyond Deterrence”, Journal of Social Sciencies, vol. 43, no. 4 (1987), pp. 5.71.
Richard N. Lebow and Janice G. Stein, “Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter “, World Politics, vol. 41, no. 2 (Enero 1989), pp. 208-224.
Rob Lee, “Moscow’s Compellence Strategy”, Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) (18 de enero 2022), en https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/
Jack Levy, "An Introduction to Prospect Theory", Political Psychology, vol. 13, no. 2 (1992), pp. 171-186.
Jack Levy, “Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems”, Political Psychology, vol. 13, no. 2 (1992), pp. 283-310.
Alexander Libman, “Russian Federalism and Post-Soviet Integration: Divergence of Development Paths, Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 63, no. 8 (2011), pp. 1323-55.
Anatol Lieven, “Ukraine: The Most Dangerous Problem in the World”, The Nation (15 de noviembre 2021), en https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-donbas-russia-conflict/
Tatyana Malyarenko y Stefan Wolff, “The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia, Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas”, Post-Soviet Affairs, vol. 34, no. 4 (2018), pp. 191-212.
Collin Meisel, “Failures in the “Deterrence Failure” Dialogue”, War on the Rocks (8 de mayo 2023), en https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/failures-in-the-deterrence-failure-dialogue/
Daniel Michaels, “The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training”, Wall Street Journal (13 de abril 2022), a través de la Librería de la Universidad de Deusto (CRAI).
Dumitru Minzarari, “Failing to Deter Russia’s War against Ukraine: The Role of Misperceptions”, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik – Deutsches Insitut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit (SWP), SWP Comment 2022/C 33 (24 de febrero de 2022), en https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2022C33/
Jack Matlock, “I was there: NATO and the origins of the Ukraine crisis”, Responsible Statecraft (15 de febrero de 2022), en https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/15/the-origins-of-the-ukraine-crisis-and-how-conflict-can-be-avoided/
Jack Matlock, “Ex-U.S. Ambassador to USSR: Ukraine Crisis Stems Directly from Post-Cold War Push to Expand NATO”, Democracy Now (17 de febrero de 2022), en https://www.democracynow.org/2022/2/17/jack_matlock_ukraine_russia_nato_us?utm_source=Democracy+Now%21&utm_campaign=2ed3eaec62-Daily_Digest_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fa2346a853-2ed3eaec62-192594398
Ion Marandici, “Loss Aversion, Neoimperial Frames and Territorial Expansion: Using Prospect Theory to Examine the Annexation of Crimea”, Journal of Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society, vol. 8, no. 1 (2022), pp. 111-147.
Maria Mälksoo, “The Postcolonial Moment in Russia’s War Against Ukraine”, Journal of Genocide Research, vol. 25, no. 3-4 (2022), pp. 471-481.
John J. Mearsheimer, The tragedy of great power politics, New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2014.
The Munk Debates, “Munk Debate Podcast on Russia-Ukraine War”, en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivcSVG5eCeQ
NATO, “Relations with Ukraine” (2024), en
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm.
Bertil Nygren, The rebuilding of Greater Russia: Putin´ s foreign policy towards the CIS countries, London; New York: Routledge, 2008.
Kseniya Oksamytna, “Imperialism, supremacy, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine”, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 44, no. 4 (2023), pp. 497-512.
Ukrainska Pravda (2014): “Текст Соглашения об урегулировании кризиса в Украине” (21 de febrero 2014), en:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2014/02/21/7015533/
Randall L. Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In”, International Security, vol. 19, no. 1 (Summer, 1994), pp. 72-107.
Nadia Shadlow, “Why Deterrence Failed Against Russia; The U.S. has a formidable military. When Biden said he wouldn't use it, Putin saw it as a green light”, Walt Street Journal (20 de marzo del 2022).
Andrey Shushentsov, “Can Russia Deliver on Its Threats?”, Valdai Club (4 de febrero 2022), en https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/can-russia-fulfil-its-threats/
Melanie W. Sisson, “America’s real deterrence problem”, Brookings (15 de junio 2022), en https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americas-real-deterrence-problem/.
Evgeny Troitskiy, “The Eurasian Economic Union at Five: Great Expectations and Hard Times. The Russia File”, Kennan Institute (14 de enero, 2020).
Amos Tversky y Daniel Kahneman, "Prospect Theory: an analysis of decision under risk", Econometrica, vol. 47, no. 2 (1979), pp. 263-292.
Stephen M. Walt, The origins of alliances, Cornell University Press, Ithaca (New York), 1990
Kenneth Waltz, “NATO expansion: A realist's view”, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 21, no. 2 (2000), pp. 23-38.
Kenneth Waltz, Theory of international politics, Long Grove, Illinois: Waveland, 2010.
Andrew Wilson, “Faltering fightback: Zelensky’s piecemeal campaign against Ukraine’s oligarchs”, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) (6 de julio 2021), en https://ecfr.eu/publication/faltering-fightback-zelenskys-piecemeal-campaign-against-ukraines-oligarchs/
Sergey Zhukov y Olga Reznikova, Economic Integration in the Post-Soviet Space, Russian Social Science Review, vol. 49, no. 4 (2008), pp 80-92.
Frank C. Zagare y Mark Kilgour D., "Asymmetric deterrence", International Studies Quarterly, vol. 37, no. 1 (Mar., 1993), pp. 1-27.
Frank C. Zagare y Mark Kilgour D., Perfect Deterrence, Cambridge, UK ; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press (2000).
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Las ediciones impresa y electrónica de esta Revista son editadas por el Secretariado de Publicaciones de la Universidad de Sevilla, siendo necesario citar la procedencia en cualquier reproducción parcial o total.Salvo indicación contraria, todos los contenidos de la edición electrónica se distribuyen bajo una licencia de uso y distribución “Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivar 4.0 Internacional”

Aceptado 2024-08-17
Publicado 2025-02-11
- Resumen 108
- PDF 44